Satellite images helping predict effect of climate change

Satellite images could help scientists predict the consequences of climate change on the world's wildlife, new research shows.

A study by the Zoological Society of London (ZSL) explains how photographs taken from space have allowed scientists to explore the relationship between vegetation and the number of herbivorous ungulates (hoofed animals).

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a satellite-based measurement indicating the amount of healthy vegetation on the ground, and is already in use by scientists studying climate change.

A report by the ZSL, published in The American Naturalist, examined patterns of abundance for 13 species in 77 African national parks. Using the satellite measurements in combination with wildlife population densities estimated using traditional aerial and ground surveys, researchers were able to report a positive correlation between NDVI and the population size of ungulates on a continental scale.

Researchers claim the technique means there is now the potential to predict which species will die out first if climatic conditions change, giving conservationists a chance to focus on those species before it's too late.

Commenting on the report, ZSL researcher Dr Nathalie Pettorelli, said: "Several climatic models can be used to predict changes in NDVI, allowing scientists to forecast how climate change might affect vegetation. The correlation discovered means that the effects of climate change on wildlife could also ultimately be predicted quantitatively.

"This is a really important step forward in helping to determine conservation priorities in a changing climate"