Britain braced for storms into December

Britain faces being battered by storms well into next month. The only comfort is that the Met Office believes that a slight shift in wind direction next week will bring cooler air, which means that rainfalls will diminish. But with the ground saturated and so many rivers running high, the slightest extra rainfall could trigger flooding in more regions.

The rainfalls on Thursday were extraordinary. Seathwaite in the fells of the Lake District is known as the wettest place in Britain, but it surpassed its reputation with a deluge: 314.4mm (12.38in), a British record for any 24-hour period, beating the cloudburst of July 18, 1955, that deluged Martinstown in Dorset with 279.4mm (11.0in).

Another storm will burst over Britain this weekend, although thankfully this depression will sweep through more rapidly than Thursday’s episode, so the rain will be less heavy.

However, the Met Office predicts that Cumbria and Southwest Scotland could see rain of up to 40mm (1.6in) on higher ground today and experience severe gales reaching 50mph. Next week the weather begins a subtle change, turning from mild and very wet southwesterly winds to a more westerly airflow with cooler air. This is good news because less rain is carried in colder air, but there could be snow falling on the highest mountains of Scotland and the Pennines.

However, the problem is that the weather is stuck in a rut. The jet stream winds are running over Britain, generating and dragging storms with them. Those winds swirl around the globe like a non-stop carousel, but they have been helped into their track over Britain by a growing El Niño in the Pacific. This is a huge upheaval in the tropical waters of the Pacific, as warm waters surge towards South America. The current El Niño appeared a few months ago and was expected to be moderate in strength, but it has intensified and is growing warmer and stronger, with sea surface temperatures around 1.5C (2.7F) warmer than normal.

“El Niño has surged in the last six weeks,” said Jeff Knight, manager of the climate variability group at the Met Office Hadley Centre. “We’re getting on for a reasonably sized event, and from past observations of El Niño we know that there will be a greater chance of wetter and windier weather at this time of year in the UK.”

Does this mean that we are doomed to a relentless barrage of foul weather until Christmas and beyond? Apart from El Niño, the weather fluctuates of its own accord, so it is quite possible that the jet stream could snap out of its pattern and give us a respite.

One crucial blockage in the system is a huge anti-cyclone over the Mediterranean. If the high pressure shifted, we would be free of the storms.

Whether this is another sign of climate change is less clear. Our weather fluctuates so wildly that no single storm, or season or even year of weather proves anything.

Flood advice

• Gather essential items together either upstairs or in a high place — have torches, medicines and waterproofs to hand
• Fill jugs and saucepans with clean water
• Move your family and pets upstairs, or to a high place with a means of escape
• Turn off gas, electricity and water supplies before flood water has entered your home
• Do not touch anything electrical when standing in floodwater
For local information on the Cumbria floods visit www.newsandstar.co.uk Listen to local radio for updates or call the Environment Agency Floodline on 0845 9881188
Source: Environment Agency

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